2022 Oscars: Who will/Should Win, and who should’ve been nominated

Well here we are again. Another year, another Oscar telecast. Another year for people who are film fanatics to debate who got robbed and whose win they are happy about. While there is clearly no right or wrong in these debates, those of us who love movies can’t resist the chance to share our views on the matter. So with that said, here are my, completely subjective, opinions.

BEST PICTURE:

Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, CODA, West Side Story, Dune, King Richard, Nightmare Alley

Will/Should Win: CODA. I know that there is still a real possibility The Power of the Dog just had too much early momentum and manages to still squeak out a victory here. But I’m going with the critical darling that seems to have all the momentum currently. It also happens to be my favorite film of the year. While I think this is a very close two horse race, I think in the end voters will have opted for this heartwarming tale of a young girl trying to find her place in the world while balancing her duties to her hearing impaired family and her community. It’s not only a brilliant film, but in these uncertain times, also a very necessary one.

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Pig” and ”Tick, Tick…Boom!” Ok, I know that ”Pig” being nominated was never going to happen (although it is one of the best films of the year and had it gotten a wider audience, perhaps it would’ve been treated as such) but there is no reality in which a film like “Don’t Look Up” should’ve made the cut over Lin Manuel-Miranda’s incredible debut. ”Tick, Tick…Boom!” was heartbreaking, entertaining, impeccably acted, written, and directed. There are probably anywhere from 2-4 films I would replace with it, so the fact that it didn‘t make the cut is crazy to me.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”), Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”), Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Will Win: Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”) This award seems like hers to lose. She has had all the momentum pretty much from the beginning. It is also very beautifully shot film and although I have some issues with the pacing it seems like I’m in the minority, and while some of that momentum for the film overall does seem to have cooled, I think Campion will take home this honor.

Should Win: Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story) I know, I know. How boring. Spielberg again? But when you’re good, you’re good, and Spielberg’s ”West Side Story” is great. Yes, it’s not ALL him. The performances are great, the cinematography is great, the scoring is great. But as everyone knows, film is a director’s medium. He captains the entire ship. And what he did with this version of a well known product, injecting more life into it and making it new again, and in most every way improving upon it is nothing short of incredible, and he should be recognized for it.

Should’ve Been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve (“Dune”) I honestly have no idea how Villeneuve got left off the final cut. Maybe everyone took his placement for granted and voted for someone else. I don’t know. What I do know is that his is one of the greatest snubs in Oscar history. He created a near cinematic masterpiece in “Dune” and proved, once again, that he is one of the greatest directors working today. It blows my mind that in a category that should be between Spielberg and Villeneuve, one of them wasn’t even nominated. There are a couple of people I can think of in the category I’d jettison in favor of Villeneuve but chief among them is Paul Thomas Anderson. I love him as a director. Magnolia is one of my favorite movies of all time. But “Licorice Pizza” is just simply not his best work. It’s fine, but kind of forgettable. Something that “Dune” is not.

BEST ACTOR:

Nominees: Will Smith (“King Richard”), Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick…Boom!”), Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”), Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”)

Will Win: Will Smith (“King Richard”) Let’s get this out of the way. Smith should probably already have an Oscar, so I have no problem with him winning for what is possibly the best performance of his career. He finds so much nuance and humanity in this role that it’s hard not to root for him to win, and he will. He’s been cleaning up in all the precursors to the Oscars that him losing would have to go down as one of the biggest surprises in Oscar history.

Should Win: Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick…Boom!”) But I would give it to Garfield. Other than Nicholas Cage in “Pig” I don’t think anyone this year gave anything even resembling the caliber of performance Garfield did. It is such a tour de force and he is simply captivating in every frame of this film. He manages to take a character that could come off as unlikable and make him very likable. He’s nothing short of brilliant in this film, and although I know he’ll get one one day (since in his young career he’s already given 3-4 Oscar worthy performances) I really do wish he could win it for this film.

Should’ve Been Nominated: Nicholas Cage (“Pig”) Ok, I know that in recent years Cage has become a parody of himself, so much so that his upcoming film is literally a satire of Cage the person. But his performance in “Pig” is mesmerizing. Every now and then Cage decides to remind people just why he’s an Oscar winning actor, and “Pig” is quite possibly his most subtle, grounded, and impressive performance to date.

BEST ACTRESS:

Nominees: Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”), Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”), Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”)

Will Win: Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) I’m not sure why, but Chastain is enjoying a moment right now. In reality, she has already turned in several Oscar worthy performances, so I’m not opposed to finally recognizing her. I just wish it was for a more nuanced performance in a better film. Don’t get me wrong. Chastain elevates the material, but there aren’t a ton of levels to her performance and in the end, the film, and the performances in it, were pretty forgettable as soon as the credits started to roll.

Should Win: Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) Believe me, I’m as surprised as you are that I’m saying Bella from “Twilight” should win an Academy Award, but she has come a long way since then and proven that those performances were a byproduct of the material and not her talent. In “Spencer” she captures the mesmerizing experience of a woman slowly losing her grip with reality. The movie completely relies on her for success and because of her multi layered performance it is one of the most interesting, memorable, and engaging films of the year. She should be awarded.

Should’ve Been Nominated: Frances McDormand (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) I know, McDormand has a been there, done that sort of feel. But that doesn’t make her any less deserving. Frankly, I would‘ve nominated her above everyone in this category, except for Stewart. She’s that good. She is every bit Washington’s equal in this film, and has arguably the harder job. I’m not saying she should’ve won (even had she been nominated, I’d be pulling for Stewart) but it should’ve been a two women race.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Nominees: Troy Kotsur (”CODA”), Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”), Ciaran Hinds (“Belfast”), J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”), Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”)

Will/Should Win: Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) If you had asked me months ago I would’ve said Kodi Smit-McPhee was a shoo-in to win this award for his understated and almost villainous performance in “The Power of the Dog.” He was the clear front runner for a long time. Then something happened. People actually saw “CODA.” When I first saw the film, I loved it. It became my favorite film of the year. I wanted it to win all the awards. But above all I came away saying Kotsur gave hands down one of the best performances of the year and deserves to win best supporting actor. At that time, I didn’t even think he’d be nominated. Then he was. Then he started winning precursor awards. All of a sudden the momentum has catapulted him into front runner status and I could not be happier. I just hope it plays out that way come Oscar night.

Should’ve Been Nominated: Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar” or “The Last Duel”) Truth be told I’m not the biggest fan of Affleck as a person. I have seen him in many interviews and his reputation as an arrogant jerk too often seems well deserved. However, he gave two great performances this year, either of which would’ve been deserving of a nomination. I would lean toward the more subtle, understated performance in “The Tender Bar,” but truly either one is deserving, and the fact that neither made the cut in favor of performances by J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”) and Ciaran Hinds (“Belfast”) seems wrong.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), Judi Dench (“Belfast”), Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”), Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”)

Will/Should Win: Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) Admittedly, the who should win portion of this was hard for me because I was ecstatic Buckley was even nominated since I thought hers was one of the best of the year and Dunst was phenomenal in “The Power of the Dog,” but in the end what DeBose accomplishes in “West Side Story” is just that much more impressive. She takes a role we are all familiar with, that has been made iconic by those before her, and still manages to put her stamp on it and do it in a completely new and fresh way. So much so that we aren’t comparing her performance to anyone prior, and Rita Moreno who won an Oscar for this same role in the 1961 original is in the movie with her. That’s impressive.

Should’ve Been Nominated: Kathryn Hunter (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) I know overwhelming consensus is that Ruth Negga should’ve been nominated for her measured and charismatic performance in “Passing” or Caitriona Balfe for “Belfast” and both should be above Dench and Ellis, but since I’m only picking one ,Hunter gave easily one of the most captivating and memorable performances of the year. She doesn’t have a ton of screen time but when she is on screen you hang on her every word. Both terrifying and welcoming, what she does in this film will linger long after the film is over.

QUICK HITS:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: “The Power of the Dog”

Should Win: “Drive My Car”

Should’ve Been Nominated: “West Side Story”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: “Belfast” (momentum is favoring “Belfast” but don’t count out” Licorice Pizza.”)

Should Win: ”The Worst Person in the World”

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Pig”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: “The Power of the Dog”

Should Win: “Dune” (has a chance, but I lean toward “The Power of the Dog”)

Should’ve Been Nominated: “The French Dispatch”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Will Win: “No Time to Die”

Should Win: “No Time to Die” or “Dos Oruguitas” (one is central to the plot of its’ film and absolutely breaks your heart when used, the other captures the feel of the film and is probably the superior standalone song, but only slightly.)

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Just Look Up”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Will/Should Win: “Encanto” (but “Flee” is amazing.)

Should’ve Been Nominated: None. This is actually exactly how I think the category should‘ve shook out.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:

Will/Should Win: “Drive My Car” (Surest bet of the night.)

Should’ve Been Nominated: “A Hero”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win: “Summer of Soul”

Should Win: “Flee” (Made history by being nominated for best animated, documentary, and international feature. Unique and heartbreaking storytelling. It deserves to take home at least one Oscar and this is where I would award it.)

Should’ve Been Nominated: None. Another category where all my picks made it.

~And there you have it. My picks for who will and should win, as well as a few thoughts on those who where snubbed. If you stuck it out for the entire thing, I hope you enjoyed it. Take care and if you’re watching, enjoy Oscar night.~